Brace Yourself for Next Year

“It finally arrived: the last day of a long, wild year in politics. And now, we can all look forward to a very quiet, calm year that could (1) see a rematch of the last presidential election, (2) find the Supreme Court deciding if a former president should be tossed off state ballots for being an insurrectionist, (3) feature that same former president prosecuted on nearly 100 charges and (4) witness the current president get impeached for unknown reasons.”  https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2023/12/31/the-3-unpredictable-factors-shaping-2024-00133360
 

Trump Accuses Cheney of Destroying Evidence

Donald Trump used Truth Social to accuse former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) of destroying evidence related to the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots, making it impossible for his lawyers to defend him in the criminal case against him. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111683296409531201

Republican loyalty to Trump and rioters climbs in 3 years after Jan. 6 attack

Three years after the Jan. 6 attack, Republicans are more sympathetic to those who stormed the U.S. Capitol and more likely to absolve Donald Trump of responsibility for the attack than they were in 2021, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll.

Republicans’ increasing loyalty to the former president comes as he simultaneously campaigns for reelection and fights criminal charges over his attempt to stay in power after losing in 2020. Republicans are now less likely to believe Jan. 6 participants were mostly violent, less likely to believe Trump bears responsibility for the attack and are slightly less likely to view Joe Biden’s election as legitimate than they were in a December 2021 Post-UMD survey. https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/01/02/jan-6-poll-post-trump/

The 2024 Wildcard

Unenthusiastic about either of their likely choices for president, many Americans say they want more, seeding the ground for a possible bumper crop of third-party and independent presidential candidates next year, NBC News reports.

While their chances of actually winning the White House may be tiny, the likelihood of several extra candidates on the ballot could tip a close election and will further complicate an already muddied picture of the divided American electorate.

That uncertainty is already troubling both parties, but especially Democrats, who worry third-party candidates could spoil the election for them as they say Green Party candidates did in 2016 and 2000, though insiders acknowledge it may be impossible to predict what happens in a five- or six-way race. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/2024-wild-card-banner-year-third-party-candidates-rcna129937

The Economist’s ‘World Ahead’ Guide Declares Donald Trump The Biggest Global Threat In 2024

The biggest danger the world faces in 2024 is if former President Donald Trump is elected to a second term, according to The Economist’s guide to The World Ahead.

In the 38 years since the predictive guide was first published, “no single person has ever eclipsed our analysis as much as Donald Trump eclipses 2024,” the article begins. It goes on to ponder what a Trump victory would mean for the world and claims that parliaments and boardrooms the world over are filled with “despair” at what may come:

A second Trump term would be a watershed in a way the first was not. Victory would confirm his most destructive instincts about power. His plans would encounter less resistance. And because America will have voted him in while knowing the worst, its moral authority would decline. The election will be decided by tens of thousands of voters in just a handful of states. In 2024 the fate of the world will depend on their ballots.

Trump would move his MAGA Republican allies into “the most important positions” in government, the article predicts, and Trump would be “unbound in his pursuit of retribution, economic protectionism and theatrically extravagant deals.”

The article posits that a Trump win would signal to China that American democracy is “dysfunctional,” and could give the communist nation the incentive to invade its island neighbor, Taiwan. In addition, the article predicts that Trump’s desire to quickly end the war in Ukraine would give Vladimir Putin the impetus to take over other neighboring countries like Moldova and the Baltic states.

This year’s article resigns itself to the possibility that no one will end up “dispatching” Trump. https://www.mediaite.com/politics/the-economists-world-ahead-guide-declares-donald-trump-the-biggest-global-threat-in-2024/
 

Inside the Trump Plot to Turn His Jan. 6 Trial Into a ‘MAGA Freak Show’

Attempts to drag Nancy Pelosi into court to berate her on the stand and, hopefully, on live TV. Claims that the Jan. 6 Capitol attack was an FBI frame job, with an assist from Antifa. Conspiracy theories that the 2020 election was indeed ‘stolen,’ supposedly backed up by still-classified documents. Unhinged assertions that President Joe Biden is now secretly, personally orchestrating an unprecedented act of political persecution. Calls to publicly unmask the federal officials and lawyers investigating the former (and perhaps future) president of the United States. Efforts to blame any illegality on some of the ex-president’s closest confidants and former legal allies. Insinuations of election meddling by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

These are just some of the items that former President Donald Trump and his lawyers have been discussing and planning to deploy when he goes on trial for his efforts to steal the 2020 election. The brewing defense strategy is outlandish and feral, even by Trumpland standards, to the point that it’s baffling some of the ex-president’s former lawyers and senior administration officials.

One person with knowledge of these strategic and legal discussions bluntly describes the plans as a blueprint for staging a ‘MAGA freak show’ at Trump’s federal election subversion trial. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-plot-to-turn-jan-6-trial-into-maga-freak-show-1234938951/
 

‘Storm the Capitol’ Board Game Commemorates January 6 Rioters

A new board game, “Storm the Capitol,” is being released this weekend to commemorate the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, Newsweek reports.
From the game’s website: “Take control of one of 6 Patriots as you battle through the Capitol, collecting ballots, taking hostages, and fighting the police. Or play as the Capitol Police and use every means at your disposal to prevent the Patriots from getting to the roof with enough ballots to Stop the Steal.” https://www.newsweek.com/storm-capitol-board-game-celebrates-jan-6-rioters-1857192

Texas Appeals Court Says Life-Saving Abortions Not Required

Federal regulations do not require emergency rooms to perform life-saving abortions if it would run afoul of state law, a federal appeals court ruled Tuesday.

After the overturn of Roe v. Wade in June 2022, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services sent hospitals guidance, reminding them of their obligation to offer stabilizing care, including medically necessary abortions, under the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act.

Texas sued, saying this was tantamount to a ‘nationwide mandate that every hospital and emergency-room physician perform abortions.’ https://www.texastribune.org/2024/01/02/texas-abortion-fifth-circuit/
 

Trump Legal News: Born under a Bad Sign

It flew under the radar a bit, thanks to the holidays, but Jack Smith filed another motion with Judge Tanya Chutkan on Dec. 27. And it's yet another one that makes clear that Donald Trump is up against a real pro.

The focus of the motion is exactly what evidence Trump can, and cannot, introduce at trial. In short, what Smith is asking is that Chutkan proactively prohibit the defense from introducing irrelevant political issues or arguments, such as the deep state is behind this or 1/6 was the fault of Nancy Pelosi or George Soros is paying for the government to conduct this trial. Smith observes that such assertions are invalid, and unsupported with evidence, but could still be prejudicial with the jury.

It is already against the rules for attorneys to make claims in court that they conjured up out of thin air; Smith knows this and Chutkan knows this. What Smith has done is comb through Trump's public statements, and identify 10 lines of attack that Trump has raised and that are not legally valid. What the Special Counsel wants is for the judge to preemptively warn the defense that those 10 subject areas are a waste of the Court's time, and will not be tolerated.

This is a very shrewd move by Smith, since it's likely Chutkan will make a pre-trial ruling in support of his position. And even if she doesn't, then everyone involved is nonetheless on notice as to exactly what distractor arguments the defense is likely to make. That will tend to make those distractor arguments less effective, and harder to get away with. It is also the case that even though the Washington trial is technically on hold, while the question of presidential immunity is dealt with, Smith is still making progress.

For the next several months, Trump's calendar is going to constantly jump back and forth between court dates and primaries/caucuses. And we're only talking cases where he is the defendant; not the procedural matters that the Supreme Court will be dealing with.

There is not much that can pierce Trump's teflon, however, if any voters are having doubts about the former president because of his legal woes, those doubts are going to be reinforced on a daily basis by headlines about this trial or that one. https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jan02-1.html
 

Hispanic Leaders Warn Democrats

President Joe Biden is heading into 2024 with concerning numbers among Hispanic voters: A new USA Today/Suffolk survey shows him trailing Donald Trump by five percentage points, with many reluctant to back either candidate. While it’s an especially rough poll, others have also shown him struggling to match his 2020 numbers with a key swath of the Democratic base — and Hispanic leaders say they’re seeing the same problems on the ground.

Conversations with leaders of Hispanic groups and political consultants in both parties underscored Biden’s difficult path forward. https://www.semafor.com/article/01/02/2024/hispanic-leaders-warn-democrats-voters-are-fed-up-with-biden

Trump’s GOP rivals promise to pardon him if they are elected

The leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination faces 91 criminal charges, nearly half of which are at the federal level. And yet his two main GOP rivals have said they would pardon him if they’re elected.

Donald Trump faces 40 federal charges connected to his handling of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago estate, as well as another four federal charges stemming from his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

He faces another 34 felonies in New York, where he is accused of falsifying business records stemming from hush money payments to Stormy Daniels, and another 13 in Georgia, where he is accused of leading a criminal racketeering enterprise to overturn the state’s election results.

Meanwhile, campaigning in the days leading up to the first votes of 2024’s Republican primary elections, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley have both signalled they would grant clemency to the former president because it would be in the nation’s interest to do so. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-pardon-desantis-haley-b2471805.html
 

Lawsuit seeks to remove Scott Perry from Pennsylvania ballot using 14th amendment

 A lawsuit has been filed in Pennsylvania’s Commonwealth Court to remove Republican U.S. House Representative Scott Perry from the 2024 ballot due to the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause.

The lawsuit, which was filed on January 2 by Harrisburg-area activist and former congressional candidate Gene Stilp, calls for Pennsylvania’s Secretary of State Al Schmidt to remove Perry from the ballot ahead of the spring’s 10th Congressional District primary. https://www.abc27.com/pennsylvania-politics/lawsuit-seeks-to-remove-scott-perry-from-pennsylvania-ballot-using-14th-amendment/

X (formerly known as Twitter) gets another valuation cut from Fidelity

Fidelity has again marked down the value of its shares in X Holdings, which the mutual fund giant helped Elon Musk buy for $44 billion when the company was known as Twitter.

Fidelity believes that X is worth 71.5% less than at the time of purchase, according to a new disclosure that runs through the end of November 2023 (Fidelity revalues private shares on a one-month lag). https://www.axios.com/2023/12/31/elon-musks-x-fidelity-valuation-cut
 

U.S. puts forward G7 plan to confiscate $300bn in Russian assets

The U.S. has proposed that working groups from the G7 explore ways to seize $300bn in frozen Russian assets, as the allies rush to agree a plan in time for the second anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. https://www.ft.com/content/d206baa8-3ec9-42f0-b103-2c098d0486d9

Russia is working to subvert French support for Ukraine

As Kyiv’s counteroffensive — and Western funding for it — falters and as governments in Europe battle rising living costs, plunging approval ratings and the rise of far-right populists, Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, a former member of the European Parliament for Le Pen’s party and his Russian associates see fresh opportunity.

Russia has been increasing its efforts to undermine French support for Kyiv — a hidden propaganda front in Western Europe that is part of the war against Ukraine, according to Kremlin documents and interviews with European security officials and far-right political figures.

The maneuvering — and Kremlin connections with a host of far-right parties across Europe, including in France — are worrying some European officials ahead of European Parliament elections in June. Josep Borrell, the E.U.’s foreign policy chief, warned at a conference this month that those elections could be “as dangerous as the American ones,” driven by “fear” in response to growing inequality and security threats. “Europe is in danger,” he said.

The Kremlin documents, obtained by a European security service and reviewed by The Washington Post, show that Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy chief of staff in President Vladimir Putin’s administration, has tasked Kremlin political strategists with promoting political discord in France through social media and French political figures, opinion leaders and activists. Those figures were not identified by name in the documents seen by The Post. Moscow’s goal is to undermine support for Ukraine and weaken NATO resolve, the documents show. The effort parallels similar interference in Germany, where the Kremlin has attempted to marry the far right and the far left in an antiwar alliance. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/30/france-russia-interference-far-right/

Biden’s Crime Problem: Violent Crime Is Down, but Voters Don’t Believe It

That’s a problem for President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, as Republicans are gearing up to use the issue as a central attack against the president, seizing on voter fears about violent crime even as federal data show almost all kinds of crime are falling nationally.

Republicans, aided by conservative outlets like Fox News and others, have long focused on crime, particularly rising rates in urban areas dominated by Democrats and flashy crime rings that have overwhelmed security at department stores to steal thousands of dollars worth of merchandise. But Republican attacks on Biden have taken on a new edge, aimed particularly at convincing voters that the crime rates in urban areas are a precursor to what will be felt across the country if Biden is reelected. https://themessenger.com/politics/bidens-crime-problem-violent-crime-is-down-but-voters-dont-believe-it

Trump doesn't have immunity from Jan. 6 civil suit brought by U.S. Capitol Police officers, appeals court says

A federal appeals court on Friday allowed a lawsuit brought by a group of U.S. Capitol Police officers against former President Donald Trump to move forward, ruling that Trump is not entitled to absolute immunity from civil lawsuits.

The suit focuses on Trump’s alleged conduct surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol.

The three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit based its decision on a ruling in a separate case brought by two Capitol Police officers and a group of House Democrats that was handed down earlier this month. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-jan-6-immunity-us-capitol-police-officers-civil-suit-appeals-court/

Trump Staffer Identified as a Capitol Rioter

Oliver Krvaric, a young Republican star and scion of a powerful GOP family from San Diego, has been identified as one of the rioters at the Capitol on January 6.

He would also be the first full-time employee of the Trump administration identified entering the Capitol in the insurrection.

Asked whether he was at the Jan. 6 riot, Krvaric initially told USA Today he was not. Pressed about the photos that online researchers say show him that day, Krvaric acknowledged he attended former President Donald Trump’s speech, but said he didn’t go inside the Capitol. Asked about images that appear to show him inside the Capitol, he then said he didn’t remember whether he went inside. Sent copies and links to the footage, he stopped responding. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2023/12/28/oliver-krvaric-jan-6-capitol-riot/71971697007/

Donald Trump Loses Effort to Delay E. Jean Carroll Defamation Case

E. Jean Carroll’s defamation trial against Donald Trump will go ahead in January after an appeals court rejected the former president’s motion to stay a previous ruling denying his attempt to use presidential immunity as a defense. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/donald-trump-loses-motion-delay-e-jean-carroll-defamation-case-1234937597/

THE DAILY GRILL

"I think it always comes down to the role of government and what the rights of the people are. And I will always stand by the fact that I think government was intended to secure the rights and freedoms of the people. Government doesn’t need to tell you how to live your life, Haley continued. They need to make sure that you have freedom. We need to have capitalism. We need to have economic freedom. We need to make sure that we do all things so that individuals have the liberties so that they can have freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom to do or be anything they want to be without government getting in the way." — former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY responding to a voter at a New Hampshire town hall forum who asked Haley what caused the Civil War. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2023/12/28/nikki-haleys-moment-of-crisis-00133265

VERSUS

"It doesn’t take a PhD to understand that slavery was the central cause of the civil war, but instead of telling it like it is, the entire MAGA field from Donald Trump on down are pandering to the most extreme fringe of their base. Minimize slavery, paraphrase HITLER, punish women and doctors — quite the record heading into the general election that will be the most diverse in history." -- A senior Biden adviser. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2023/12/28/nikki-haleys-moment-of-crisis-00133265
 

“I have many wonderful friends wanting to be Speaker of the House, and some are truly great Warriors. RINO Tom Emmer, who I do not know well, is not one of them. He never respected the Power of a Trump Endorsement, or the breadth and scope of MAGA—MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! He fought me all the way, and actually spent more time defending Ilhan Omar, than he did me—He is totally out-of-touch with Republican Voters. I believe he has now learned his lesson, because he is saying that he is Pro-Trump all the way, but who can ever be sure? Has he only changed because that’s what it takes to win? The Republican Party cannot take that chance, because that’s not where the America First Voters are. Voting for a Globalist RINO like Tom Emmer would be a tragic mistake!”   — Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111291340230348905

VERSUS

A little more than 2 months since he was forced to withdraw, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) endorsed former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican primary, giving him the endorsement of the top four House Republicans going into the Iowa caucus later this month. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/tom-emmer-endorses-donald-trump.