Peter Baker: A Felon in the Oval Office Would Test the American System

Whatever rules Americans thought were in place are now being rewritten by Donald Trump, the once and perhaps future president who has already shattered many barriers and precedents. The notion that 34 felonies is not automatically disqualifying a convicted criminal can be a viable candidate for Commander-in-Chief upends two and a half centuries of assumptions about American democracy.

And it raises fundamental questions about the limits of power in a second term, should Mr. Trump be returned to office. If he wins, it means he will have survived two impeachments, four criminal indictments, civil judgments for sexual abuse and business fraud, and a felony conviction. Given that, it would be hard to imagine what institutional deterrents could discourage abuses or excesses. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/02/us/politics/trump-presidency-checks-balances.html

Maureen Dowd: Holy Cow, 34 for 45!

For Trump, the “thugs” were not the ones who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6; the “thugs” were the lawmakers who investigated the attack on Jan. 6.

The master of Mar-a-Lago played the victim, saying the prosecutors were trying to destroy his life over “a legal expense.” Striking the martyr note, he said witnesses on his side were “literally crucified.”

Anyone who isn’t a lickspittle must be cruelly belittled. Justice Juan Merchan is a “crooked judge” who “looks like an angel but he’s really a devil.”

It’s remarkable to watch the luminaries of “law and order” contort themselves to undermine Trump’s conviction, due to what Cohen called a “dumpster cult.” The party of law and order evidently doesn’t like any law it didn’t order.

His puckered-up vice-presidential wannabe J.D. Vance evaded Wolf Blitzer’s best efforts to have him disavow Trump’s claim that we live in a “fascist state,” instead lamenting the effort to prosecute Trump for “a paperwork violation.” Speaker Mike Johnson called for the Supreme Court — “I know many of them personally” — to jump in and reverse the verdict.

Trump, meanwhile, projected as always, deflecting criticisms leveled at him and boomeranging them onto Biden. Trump once more painted Biden, 81, as faltering and senile, ignoring the fact that he himself, about to turn 78 this month, has lost a few steps. The suzerain of dishonesty called Biden “the most dishonest president we’ve ever had.” Trump said we have a president and “a group of fascists” that are “destroying our country.”

If Trump keeps railing about himself in apocalyptic terms, it could give Biden an opportunity. And Biden badly needs an opportunity. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/01/opinion/donald-trump-trial.html

Catherine Rampell: The GOP’s fight to hide the cost of its next tax cut has already begun

Republicans are trying to hide the full cost of their planned tax cuts from voters — by preemptively smearing the scorekeepers.

The 2017 Trump tax cuts came with a massive price tag: The legislation added $1.9 trillion to deficits over a decade, as estimated by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in coordination with the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT). That figure even accounted for the law’s expected economic growth effects, which Republicans touted at the time. The law’s proponents didn’t want to hear it and kept insisting their tax cuts would fully pay for themselves.

A huge portion of those tax cuts are scheduled to expire next year, and the fight to prevent more inconvenient numbers from coming out has already begun.

The CBO and JCT have released several estimates for how much red ink would be required to extend the tax breaks. Each time they release a new estimate, the price grows. In fact, since the first estimate was released back in 2018, the cost of extension has grown by about 50 percent, as the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget recently noted. That’s the equivalent of an additional $1.2 trillion through 2034, for a total price tag of more than $4 trillion over a decade.

This swelling cost is partly because of higher-than-expected inflation and income growth over the past few years. But given that the proposal’s cost as a share of the overall economy (which is also boosted by inflation and income growth) has also risen, there are other factors at play. They include some unanticipated abuse of GOP-preferred tax breaks, as well as workarounds for what were supposed to be revenue raisers (such as a cap on state and local tax deductions).

In any event, this rising price tag is bad news for Republicans. Should they gain control of the White House and both chambers of Congress next year, they’re hoping to fast-track more tax cuts on a party-line vote. Once again, Republicans are expected to (falsely) claim their tax cuts fully pay for themselves and thus won’t worsen the federal deficits they sometimes claim to worry about.

So how is the GOP preparing for next year’s tax battle? By preemptively fighting with the refs. And even worse, by potentially incapacitating them.

Last week, House Republican leadership sent around a “questionnaire” to its members in what appears to be prep work for discrediting or kneecapping the politically neutral CBO, which is tasked with scoring legislative bills. An email with letterhead from House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) said the House Budget Committee was trying to assess the “responsiveness, accuracy, and perceived bias” of the CBO, specifically to help “strategic and legislative planning” for the party’s upcoming tax-and-budget legislation.

It’s unclear as yet what will come of this exercise. When he was president before, Donald Trump showed no qualms about undermining or blowing up world-renowned, independent statistical agencies full of talented experts. It’s reasonable to worry his acolytes might try something similar here.

For the party of alternative facts, few things are more dangerous than an institution that tries to be a neutral arbiter of truth. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/30/republicans-congress-cbo-tax-cuts/

D. Earl Stephens: GUILTY: The Republicans' Unholy Alliance

The morally busted, anti-America Republican Party has wedded itself to the most vile, corrupt politician who has ever run for anything anywhere in this country, and right now they are busy working overtime trying to somehow make this the Democratic Party’s problem.

They are immersed in trying to make this the American voters’ problem.

They are busy trying to make themselves victims … and I swear to God, don’t you dare fall for all this nuclear-powered gaslighting, dammit.

Rather than dumping the reprehensible Trump like a 300-lb. sack of dirt, his odious party has now hitched themselves with a double-knot to this two-bit thug who’s never respected a single thing in his miserable life except ill-gotten gains.

By associating themselves with this disgusting, slobbering phony the Republican Party has no place left to go but even lower, and I’m telling you right now as sure as I write this, anybody who follows them there and tries to legitimize this as normal can never come back from it.

Anybody who tells you that their situation is somehow better for all of this should never be listened to again. https://open.substack.com/pub/dearlstephens/p/guilty-the-republicans-unholy-alliance
 

Dean Obeidallah: Trump and his supporters are again threatening violence-don’t ignore them.

Since Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felonies, we have seen Trump supporters—both on camera and online—threaten violence.  And on Sunday, Trump joined those by threatening that if he is jailed, it could be a “breaking point” for his supporters.

These threats can’t be ignored. Recent history tells us that Trump and his MAGA followers are capable of not just threats—but violence as well.

And there’s one more thing to add to this combustible mix. After Trump’s conviction, he is even more desperate and dangerous.  If Trump had been acquitted--or even if there had been a hung jury--Trump could’ve still believed he truly was the “Teflon Don” who would never be held  accountable.

That is no longer the reality. Rather, Trump is now like the person first called the “Teflon Don,” mobster John Gotti, who earned that moniker after avoiding criminal convictions in prior cases. Gotti’s Teflon, though, ended in 1992 after a jury found him guilty in a case where a former close associate testified against him. (Like Michael Cohen in Trump’s trial.) Gotti was sentenced to life in prison, where he ultimately died in 2002.

To be blunt, Trump is facing the same potential fate as Gotti --and especially if Trump is convicted in his other three criminal cases.  It's in that vein Trump’s alarming comment about potential jail time in a Fox News interview released Sunday must be viewed.  During that interview, the presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee first responded when asked about the prospect of being sentenced to jail with a Gotti sense of bravado, saying, “I’m OK with it.”

But then after a little more back and forth, Trump—who is still clearly processing his new status as a convicted felon—alarmingly commented about the potential of being sentenced to jail, “I don’t know that the public would stand it, you know?” He continued, “I think it would be tough for the public to take.” Trump then added ominously, “At a certain point, there’s a breaking point.”

In response to Trump’s “breaking point” comment, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif) stated bluntly on CNN Sunday, "this is clearly Donald Trump once again inciting violence." Schiff—who has been a vocal Trump critic for years—is right.

This is a far more alarming comment than Trump made after the verdict on Thursday where he slammed the case as a “a rigged, disgraceful trial.  Or on Friday, when he held a press conference where he repeated the “rigged” line while again peddling a series of lies about the trial—including that President Biden somehow orchestrated the New York state prosecution.

Trump is apparently beginning to understand that he could face jail time given each of the 34 felonies he was convicted of carries up to a four-year prison sentence. Even Trump’s own lawyer Todd Blanche told The Associated Press while it would be “extraordinary” to send Trump to jail, it was not out of the question given “this is a very highly publicized case” and some might argue Trump deserves a harsher punishment because he faces charges elsewhere.

It's unclear what Trump will do—but one thing is certain. Trump now understands he is no longer Teflon and that he could end up in prison. His first order of business will be not being sentenced to jail in the New York case. Then it will be winning the 2024 election because that is the only way for Trump to guarantee he will avoid a John Gotti-like end to his life. To do that, Trump will do any and everything to prevail in this election.

Given Trump’s history combined with his new level of desperation, law enforcement must on guard for threats or violence from the MAGA faithful. And so should we. https://open.substack.com/pub/deanobeidallah/p/trump-and-his-supporters-are-again

Clare Duffy and Brian Fung: Elon Musk has been getting Trumpier. A direct line to Trump may be next

Donald Trump and Elon Musk have discussed a possible advisory role for the Tesla leader should the presumptive Republican nominee reclaim the White House, the latest sign that the once-frosty relationship between the two men has thawed.

The role hasn’t been fully hammered out and might not happen, people familiar with the talks said, but the two men discussed ways to give Musk formal input and influence over policies related to border security and the economy, both issues on which Musk has grown more vocal.

The privilege of whispering in Trump’s ear, should he win reelection, could give the billionaire – who is increasingly steeped in the rhetoric and imagery of the conservative culture wars – even more power on the global stage. Reporting that Musk and Trump’s relationship has improved comes after Musk’s politics have become more aligned with Trump’s.

Musk has made supporting right-wing causes — and extremism, in some situations — increasingly central to his identity. He has vocally opposed Covid-19 lockdowns and embraced anti-vaccine ideology. He has elevated conservative speech on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter that he purchased in 2022. And he has pushed racist conspiracy theories about immigration.

Musk has also obsessed over the “woke mind virus,” a term used by some conservatives to describe progressive causes. And he has explicitly called for Republican victories at the ballot box, warning of the country’s impending “doom” if a “red wave” does not materialize in November.

A more formal alliance with Trump would mark the culmination of Musk’s long, winding quest for political relevance — and could greatly benefit his empire of companies that depend on government support. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/30/tech/elon-musk-donald-trump/index.html

Robert Reich: Why is a group of billionaires working to re-elect Trump?

Elon Musk and the entrepreneur and investor David Sacks reportedly held a secret dinner party of billionaires and millionaires in Hollywood last month. Its purpose: to defeat Joe Biden and re-install Donald Trump in the White House.

The guest list included Peter Thiel, Rupert Murdoch, Michael Milken, Travis Kalanick, and Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s treasury secretary.

Meanwhile, Musk is turning up the volume and frequency of his anti-Biden harangues on Twitter/X, the platform he owns.

According to an analysis by the New York Times, Musk has posted about the president at least seven times a month, on average, this year. He has criticized Biden on issues ranging from Biden’s age to his policies on health and immigration, calling Biden “a tragic front for a far left political machine”.

The Times analysis showed that over the same period of time, Musk has posted more than 20 times in favor of Trump, claiming that the criminal cases the former president now faces are the result of media and prosecutorial bias.

This is no small matter. Musk has 184 million followers on X, and because he owns the platform he’s able to manipulate the algorithm to maximize the number of people who see his posts.

No other leader of a social media firm has gone as far as Musk in supporting authoritarian leaders around the world. In addition to Trump, Musk has used his platform in support of India’s Narendra Modi, Argentina’s Javier Milei and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro.

Some of this aligns with Musk’s business interests. In India, he secured lower import tariffs for Tesla vehicles. In Brazil, he opened a major new market for Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service. In Argentina, he solidified access to lithium, the mineral most crucial to Tesla’s batteries.

But something deeper is going on. Musk, Thiel, Murdoch and their cronies are leading a movement against democracy.

Peter Thiel, the billionaire tech financier, once wrote: “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.”

If freedom is not compatible with democracy, what is it compatible with?

Thiel donated $15m to the successful Republican senatorial campaign of JD Vance, who alleged that the 2020 election was stolen and that Biden’s immigration policy meant “more Democrat voters pouring into this country”. (Vance is now high on the list of Trump vice-presidential possibilities.)

Thiel also donated at least $10m to the Arizona Republican primary race of Blake Masters, who also claimed Trump won the 2020 election and admires Lee Kuan Yew, the authoritarian founder of modern Singapore.

Billionaire money is now gushing into the 2024 election. Just 50 families have already injected more than $600m into the 2024 election cycle, according to a new report from Americans for Tax Fairness. Most of this is going to the Trump Republican party. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/03/billionaires-for-trump-presidential-election

Molly Jong-Fast: Trumpworld’s Post-Conviction Spin Cycle

In some ways, the political aftermath of the Trump trial is vaguely reminiscent of when the Access Hollywood video came out in 2016. At the time, Trumpworld fell into a great silence of uncertainty. Trump’s political acolytes are similarly uncertain now—only loudly so—as it dawns upon them that Don’s Teflon might finally be wearing off. It probably didn’t help to see Trump himself out there desperately attempting to work the refs by repeating his pedantic treatise on ledgers. “Did you ever see a ledger?” he asked during a highly edited Fox and Friends appearance Sunday. “Did you ever study accounting? The line’s like about an inch long and an eighth of an inch wide. You can’t write the story. But there is no story, if you pay a legal expense and you write it down as a legal expense.”

Trump has always been able to maintain a grip on a certain percentage of American voters because of his infinite capacity for shamelessness in the face of shamefulness. He doesn’t apologize. He doesn’t admit when he’s wrong. He never questions his own bad decisions. But now, a jury has found Trump to be guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records, making him the first president to ever be convinced of a felony—and possibly the first presidential candidate who won’t even be able to vote for himself. In Trump’s world, this reality doesn’t really matter. It’s something that can be endlessly spun and mangled and perverted into a word salad of projection and lies. But when it comes to wiping off a stain that’s this indelible, Trumpworld is going to have a much harder time. And for now, all they can seem to manage is smudging it. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/trumpworlds-post-conviction-spin-cycle

Eugene Robinson: Here’s how Trump could make America great

There is one thing that I have not heard Trump’s overcaffeinated defenders claim: He didn’t do it.

I haven’t heard one Republican official argue that Trump did not sleep with a porn star four months after his wife Melania gave birth to their son Barron; that he did not have Daniels paid to keep quiet about the tryst; that he did not cause his company’s books to be falsified to hide the payment; or that he did not buy Daniels’s silence because he worried her story would hurt his chances of winning the election.

Rather, the GOP argument is that Trump shouldn’t have been prosecuted or convicted for these actions. So much for the erstwhile party of law and order.

Republicans must need throat lozenges after a weekend of yelling “election interference” at the top of their lungs. I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in the handful of instant polls that have attempted to gauge the political impact of Trump’s new status as a felon. The point of the trial was accountability, not electability.

But I do hope that Democrats, independents and non-MAGA conservatives will finally snap out of their funk and realize that the aura of inevitability that Trump has been trying to project is nothing but a smoke-and-mirrors illusion.

He lost in 2020 to Biden, although he’s too insecure to admit it. He lost in court, although the system is designed to give every advantage to the defendant. And it is we, the voters — not any judge or any jurors — who have the power to make sure he loses again in November.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/03/trump-drop-out-2024-felon/

Peter Jamison: For Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels, a ‘vindicating’ moment at last

The jury that found former president Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony charges delivered not only a historic verdict, but an unusual form of validation for two historically offbeat and divisive witnesses: Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels.

Fixer and adult-film actress, the pair made up the unlikely axis of the first-ever criminal case against an American president, bearing the uneasy hopes of Trump’s critics and the tireless mockery of his supporters. As they parlayed their roles in the hush money saga into popular books and repeated news media appearances, they were ridiculed, threatened, doubted, dragged in and out of courtrooms and, in Cohen’s case, locked up in prison.

On Thursday, the criminal justice system appeared to affirm that the most important parts of their stories had been true all along.

“Both of them have been living with this since 2016, and have had their credibility, their character, every aspect of their lives under a microscope and picked apart and obviously derided,” said E. Danya Perry, Cohen’s attorney. “It was all the more gratifying and vindicating when the jury came back with such a swift and unanimous verdict.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/01/michael-cohen-stormy-daniels-trump-guilty/

Michelle Goldberg Trump’s Second Term Would Be Even More Corrupt and Vindictive Than His First

A truism of the Trump era is that every accusation is a confession. When Donald Trump hurls wild charges at his opponents, he is telegraphing what he plans to do to them, preemptively justifying the breaking of laws and norms by casting himself as the victim of the very misdeeds he’s going to commit.

That is how we should understand Trump’s ranting in the wake of his 34 felony convictions last week. After he was found guilty, he told reporters gathered outside the courthouse, “This was done by the Biden administration in order to wound or hurt an opponent.” It’s tedious to fact-check such claims — the MAGA movement doesn’t care what’s true and what’s not — but President Biden had nothing to do with the state case brought by Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney. And as if to underline Biden’s refusal to interfere in Justice Department decisions, the federal prosecution of the president’s son Hunter Biden begins this week. In spinning this fantasy about Biden, Trump is telegraphing that, should he return to the White House, he will try to use the Justice Department in exactly the way he’s pretending it was used against him. When the former president compares himself to the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died earlier this year in an Arctic prison colony, he’s giving himself permission to act like Vladimir Putin.

Republican caterwauling about Trump’s felony conviction provides rhetorical cover for this planned transformation of America’s justice system by making it seem like that transformation has already been accomplished by Democrats. On Thursday, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, a potential Trump vice president, said that Democrats “have crossed the line in which now the court system is a political weapon, and it’s going to be very hard for it not to come back the other way.” In other words, whatever abuses Trump’s foes are subject to in a Trump restoration will be nothing but well-earned comeuppance. By projecting the authoritarian aggression of their movement onto others, Republicans absolve themselves. It’s the mantra of abusers everywhere: “Look what you made me do.”  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/03/opinion/trumps-weaponized-justice-system.html